Alea Iacta Est. (English)

Alea Iacta Est. 

The Die is Cast. There is no way back!

In general, the greater or lesser possibility of having had a good primary or secondary education in our lives, contributes to marking the pros and cons that characterize the unique and indivisible essence of our existence as rational beings... or not?

The Economy, whatever it is and has been since its inception, and continues to be a career that billions of men and women do not lose sleep over, although sometimes we observe it when we feel that something is not going as well as it should be! 

According to Who? Several of us wonder!!  

Beyond the fact that the prices of basic goods and services soar, it is wise to say that we do not put aside, observe with greater interest, within the equation Cost vs. Benefits, other condiments or spices, which aromatizes us in the conclusion that something is not going well!

As for example, the pandemic, or the meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, the COP26 Summit that brings together political, academic, economic, scientific leaders and civil society, seeking to accelerate action towards the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and why not, let us include in the equation, this brief and quite down-toearth analysis of the editor of economic issues of the publication The Economist, Mr. Henry Curr that I put at your disposal, after a short "My Cut".

My Cut.

Translating a thought, which is originally structured, thought and written, in a language totally foreign to the Castilian language, is a task that must be taken with respectful care, with great margins of neutrality and knowing with ballistic expertise how to use at the time that ’s necessary and indispensable, the telescope or the microscope. 

Today, thanks to Google and its Associated Algorithms, quite competitive and excellent in their task of building bridges of understanding and comprehension, it is almost possible, it is simply logical to achieve it. Moreover, I would say that the Creative Geniuses of the Google Translate Algorithm, are challenging the Writer Storyteller who masterfully used the history or mythology of the Tower of Babel, within a peacefully and civilly demonstration that despite everything and all the apocalyptic circumstances that we read and we listen, that of Babel Inferno Tower is just that, a good Story, a story that must be sifted and sifted to get some reflection that is really worth the effort, beyond entertaining the tender imagination of a young Girl or Boy in their early days, almost exclusively, on the only thing that focuses them: the structure of the building that seeks to reach "Heaven". No question about it!!.

Why is it advisable to approach this summary of the Status Quo of the "Economic Thing" on the Global Planet and not on the Flat Planet? 
Let's OBSERVE and READ before answering ourselves, calmly and focused, this brief diagnosis from The Economist Editor, Mr. Henry Curr.

__O__ 

Will the world economy return to normal in 2022?? If not, a painful economic adjustment looms!! (*) 
Will the Stagflationary Forces (*) acting on the world economy last? 

Throughout 2021, central banks and most economists have said that the factors causing an increase in inflation and a slowdown in growth would be temporary. Supply chain bottlenecks would diminish, energy prices would fall back to “earthly” levels, and workers in the rich world who were left out of the workforce - for reasons that no one fully understands - would go back to work.

However, as 2021 draws to a close, closed financial markets, the public, and even central bankers themselves are beginning to lose faith. 
  • The problems of world trade in 2021 have not only been caused by the interruption of supply, such as the covid-19 outbreaks that closed factories, which are benchmarks for the sustained development of the global economy, as can be the case of factories in Vietnam
  • There has also been an excess demand.
  • The massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with social distancing, led consumers to binge on goods, from electronic gaming devices to sneakers of all kinds and colors.
  • In the summer of 2021, Americans' spending on consumer goods was 7% above the pre-pandemic trend.
    • In other countries, too, there are cases of shortage of goods in relation to an unusually high demand for these economies not as solid as the US. 
    • For the global economy to return to something of a normalcy, consumers must spend more of their abundant cash on services, such as restaurant meals and travel. 
Unfortunately, economies are plagued by a shortage of workers needed for service industries to thrive.
  • Wages in leisure and hospitality are skyrocketing. Many economists expected workers to return when emergency support for labor markets, such as leave plans and emergency unemployment insurance, ended.
  • So far, surprisingly, there are few signs of that happening.
  • For inflation to be temporary, wage growth and price growth will likely have to fall.
  • The alternatives are an unlikely increase in productivity or lower profit margins, which for companies like restaurants are already in short supply.
Some monetary authorities are beginning to fear the opposite: wage growth that continues to rise as workers expect higher inflation.
  •  The rich world hasn't seen such a sharp price and wage spiral since the 1970s
  • The rise in inflation expectations turns out to be worrying.
  • The job of central banks would suddenly become much more difficult. They couldn't keep inflation on target without sacrificing jobs.
  • Emerging markets, countries in perpetual development, are used to this painful trade-off between growth and inflation, but it hasn't hit the rich world much for decades.
  • In the big rich countries, the Bank of England comes closest to tightening, simply to preserve the credibility of its inflation target, and not because it is justified by underlying economic conditions.
Central Bank Directors are in an involuntary lockdown. 
  • It's easy to imagine monetary policy makers raising interest rates and regretting it.
  • Although inflation will remain high in the first months of 2022, central bankers typically think that it takes a year and a half for higher interest rates to have their full effect on the economy.
  • The forces that previously kept global rates and inflation low - demographic change, inequality, and rampant global demand for safe assets - may have reasserted themselves by then.
  • The impending tax cut in many countries will help cool economies:
    • Great Britain has announced large tax increases.
    • The president Joe Biden is fighting to get Congress to pass big spending bills. 
    • And slower growth in China, which is struggling with a housing market slowdown, could spread globally.
Above all, the pandemic is not over, at times it fills us with panic because nothing stops it in its gigantic and fearsome landing.
  • The spread of the virus could still disrupt economies once again if immunity wanes and new variants can evade vaccines.
  • But with supply chains on edge, the world cannot repeat the trick of sustaining economic growth using stimuli that shift consumer spending onto goods.
  • Instead, central banks would have to choke spending with higher rates to avoid excessive inflation, while the supply side of the economy adapts to spending and work patterns that are very different from those that prevailed in the decade. 2010.
  • If normality does not return in 2022, the alternative is a painful economic adjustment.
(*). Henry Curr: the economics editor, The Economist. 

__O__

Conclusion Looking Through the Window.

I think that arriving without knowing how to arrive is more useless than a broken umbrella on a rainy day. Because we know that it will never be reached, since when it does arrive, the nanosecond from that point is imperceptible, it is transitory. Ergo the "I arrive with an accent on the or as such", does not stay forever. Is this clear?

Let's stop moving convinced that there is a terminal station, such as Victoria Station, Central Station, La Gare Du Nord, Retiro, etc. We know very well that they are Seasons, but they are just another one that illustrates once again the unstoppable movement of the invisible to the eyes: Evolution. The only ones that stay as is, are the trains that goes and goes …… and return ……., and return !!!.

But they move, no?

I believe in myself, therefore I believe in the humanity that surrounds me. I believe that my mistakes are facts that help me like burning coals to feed the boilers of the engines that move this Being that travels aboard my Body that sails on the Lake of Chaos. 

And to top it off, it would be very difficult, almost impossible, not to understand the vital importance of the existence of plurality, if we did not understand the existence of singularity. I am not a train arriving at a Terminal Station. My being will never arrive, it will never start. And I support myself, to affirm this, not only in my observation, I am also supported by old philosophies, well structured about pure freedom that its metaphysical pillars and its ethical protocols give it. 

And don't tell me that your electricity bill comes to you every month. This happens because it is closing the door to evolution!

So, stubbornly stop searching, reaching or starting !! Observe, Listen, Ferment, Age with one of our infused Spirals and Discover an Infinite New Frontier !!  

Cheers, 
Cato.
__________________ 
(*). Stagflation is characterized by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment, or economic stagnation, which at the same time is accompanied by rising prices (ie inflation). Stagflation can alternatively be defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Simply put, the economic front faces a combination of high inflation, high unemployment, and slow growth.






 

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